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EXCESS RETURN vs SPY · MIN 5 TRADES

PAPER RETURN ANALYSIS

Every STOCK Act disclosure carries a price and a SPY benchmark. The gap between them is excess return — benchmark context after disclosed trades, not a recommendation or proof of motive. Ordered by average excess return across data-linked trades. Minimum 5 qualified trades required.

Members Analyzed
101
Congress Avg vs SPY
+3.0%
Above SPY
50%
of qualified members
Dem Avg vs SPY
+3.0%
GOP Avg vs SPY
+2.8%
House Avg vs SPY
+3.8%
Senate Avg vs SPY
-1.3%

Modeled return difference over time

Monthly average 30-day difference vs S&P 500 · disclosure rows with price data

OverallPurchasesSales
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+19.2%Apr '25-4.5%Sep '25Aug '24Nov '24Feb '25May '25Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Jul '26128111051530152617971341198511778S&P baseline
Aug '24% of scored rows above S&P 500 each monthJul '26

Excess return = stock price change over ~30 days after trade date minus SPY change over the same window. Gold marks observations above the benchmark and red marks observations below it. This model is not actual portfolio performance.

Modeled return difference by sector

Average 30-day S&P-relative difference by mapped sector · minimum 10 scored disclosure rows

Purchase disclosures
-0.6%
average difference
Sale disclosures
+1.9%
average difference
Sample comparison:Sale-disclosure observations have the higher modeled average in this sample. This is not evidence of an information advantage.
SECTOR← below S&P · above S&P →TRADESRETAIL-MISCELLA…+31.3%86% win14Technology+17.9%47% win6727Industrials+9.7%47% win2606Other+5.2%38% win12696Energy+2.9%52% win892ETF-1.6%69% win29Comm Services-5.0%19% win390Financials-5.1%39% win5004Utilities-9.4%26% win498stocks-10.9%28% win130Consumer Discre…-12.0%33% win66Healthcare-12.5%35% win3988Real Estate-12.7%29% win281Consumer Disc.-13.0%30% win3468Materials-13.4%28% win956STATE COMMERCIA…-19.8%0% win17otc-21.4%34% win215Consumer Staples-29.4%11% win1132
Buy α dot (top of bar)Sell α dot (bottom of bar)Bar = overall avg α for sector

Highest Average Differences

1DFLDebbie Wasserman Schultz+131.9%
33 trades · 58% above SPY
Highest observed: NGD +632.6%
2RGAAustin Scott+106.0%
40 trades · 63% above SPY
Highest observed: BE +1472.4%
3RFLAshley Moody+56.5%
45 trades · 58% above SPY
Highest observed: MU +734.3%
4RNCBrad Knott+53.7%
6 trades · 100% above SPY
Highest observed: CMPO +62.5%
5RTNCharles Fleischmann+42.4%
27 trades · 44% above SPY
Highest observed: LASR +532.0%
6RKYMitch McConnell+38.7%
24 trades · 33% above SPY
Highest observed: LAZR +1257.0%
7DMAJake Auchincloss+38.4%
17 trades · 100% above SPY
Highest observed: STT +84.3%
8DNYThomas Suozzi+28.7%
33 trades · 64% above SPY
Highest observed: GLW +261.9%
9DCAGeorge Whitesides+24.9%
58 trades · 41% above SPY
Highest observed: PL +935.6%
10RPARobert Bresnahan+24.3%
1107 trades · 40% above SPY
Highest observed: SNDK +5411.6%
11RINJefferson Shreve+20.1%
1056 trades · 36% above SPY
Highest observed: SNDK +5169.0%
12DPAJohn Fetterman+19.9%
27 trades · 48% above SPY
Highest observed: MU +184.9%
13DAZGreg Stanton+19.2%
5 trades · 100% above SPY
Highest observed: TCNNF +21.7%
14RORCliff Bentz+18.3%
7 trades · 57% above SPY
Highest observed: INTC +85.4%
15RPADaniel Meuser+17.1%
41 trades · 46% above SPY
Highest observed: NVDA +148.3%
16RARJ. Hill+15.3%
38 trades · 42% above SPY
Highest observed: INTC +362.2%
17DMIShri Thanedar+14.3%
26 trades · 58% above SPY
Highest observed: GOOGL +83.7%
18RGAEarl Carter+13.6%
6 trades · 100% above SPY
Highest observed: ABCB +16.9%
19DWAAdam Smith+12.8%
13 trades · 77% above SPY
Highest observed: NEM +50.5%
20DPADwight Evans+11.0%
61 trades · 41% above SPY
Highest observed: INTC +320.4%

Largest Adverse Moves

Excess return = (ticker price change over ~30 days post-transaction) − (SPY change over same window). Only trades with both a resolved ticker price and SPY benchmark are included. 101 members have at least 5 qualified trades. Data updates nightly as new STOCK Act filings are processed.