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EXCESS RETURN vs SPY · MIN 5 TRADES

PAPER RETURN BOARD

Every STOCK Act disclosure carries a price and a SPY benchmark. The gap between them is excess return — benchmark context after disclosed trades, not a recommendation or proof of motive. Ranked by average excess return across data-linked trades. Minimum 5 qualified trades required.

Members Ranked
91
Congress Avg vs SPY
+2.0%
Above SPY
44%
of ranked members
Dem Avg vs SPY
+2.8%
GOP Avg vs SPY
+1.2%
House Avg vs SPY
+3.3%
Senate Avg vs SPY
-3.8%

Congressional Alpha Over Time

Monthly avg excess return vs SPY · all STOCK Act trades with price data

Overall αBuy αSell α
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+13.2%Apr '25-5.1%May '25Jul '24Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Jun '264185198351472768111292784758SPY baseline
Jul '24% of trades that beat SPY each monthJun '26

Excess return = stock price change over ~30 days after trade date minus SPY change over the same window. Area shaded gold where Congress outpaced SPY, red where it lagged. Dots colored by monthly result.

Alpha Attribution by Sector

Where does Congress's trading edge (or liability) come from? Avg excess return vs SPY per sector · min 10 trades

Congress on Buys
-1.7%
avg α vs SPY
Congress on Sells
+0.6%
avg α vs SPY
Insight:Congress exits positions more profitably than they enter — possible better information at the sell.
SECTOR← lags SPY · beats SPY →TRADESTechnology+11.9%46% win3547Industrials+8.2%48% win1358Energy+6.1%59% win468Other+3.5%38% win6702Comm Services+0.5%25% win221ETF-2.4%54% win24Financials-5.9%36% win2566stocks-7.3%35% win106Utilities-7.8%28% win258Materials-8.8%33% win485Real Estate-9.0%38% win147Consumer Disc.-9.1%34% win1809Consumer Discre…-10.3%33% win33Healthcare-14.7%29% win2055otc-18.4%36% win107Consumer Staples-26.3%11% win580
Buy α dot (top of bar)Sell α dot (bottom of bar)Bar = overall avg α for sector

Top Paper Returns

Largest Adverse Moves

Excess return = (ticker price change over ~30 days post-transaction) − (SPY change over same window). Only trades with both a resolved ticker price and SPY benchmark are included. 91 members have at least 5 qualified trades. Data updates nightly as new STOCK Act filings are processed.